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The aging of Japan outweighs all other nations with the highest proportion of elderly citizens, 21% over the age of 65.1 This demographic group increased from 26.5 million in 2006 to 27.4 million in 2007, a 0.7% increase. The Japanese health ministry estimates the nation's total population will decrease by 25% from 127.8 million in 2005 to 95.2 million by 2050.2 Japan's elderly population, aged 65 or older, comprised 20% of the nation's population in June 2006,3 a percentage expected to increase to 40% by 2055.4
A study by the UN Population Division released in 2000 found that Japan would need to raise its retirement age to 77 or admit 10 million immigrants annually between 2000 and 2050 to maintain its worker to retiree ratio.5 But note that raising the retirement age to 77 would mean that many workers would die or become physically incapacitated long before they were legally able to retire, and admitting 10 million immigrants per year would mean that Japan's population would rise from 130 million to over 800 million in just a few decades.6
Paul S. Hewitt, an analyst for International Politics and Society, wrote in 2002 that Japan, in addition to the European nations of Austria, Germany, Greece, Italy, Spain, and Sweden, will experience an unprecedented labor shortage by 2010. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates Japan will experience an 18% decrease in its workforce and 8% decrease in its consumer population by 2030. Hewitt believes this decline in overall population and shortage in labor is retarding economic growth and lowering nations' gross domestic product. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) estimates labor shortages will decrease the European Union's economic growth by 0.4% annually from 2000 to 2025 at least, after which shortages will cost the EU 0.9% in growth. In Japan these shortages will lower growth by 0.7% annually until 2025, after which Japan will also experience a 0.9% loss in growth. In contrast, Australia, Canada, and the United States will all see a growth in their workforce.7
See also
References
- ^ "Asia: Japan: Most Elderly Nation" (HTML). The New York Times (2006). Retrieved on 2008-01-07.
- ^ Japan's Elderly Population Rises to Record, Government Says Bloomberg.
- ^ "Europe's Aging Population Faces Social Problems Similar to Japan's" (HTML). Goldsea Asian American Daily. Retrieved on 2007-12-15.
- ^ Japan eyes robots to support aging population The Boston Globe
- ^ Unknown (2000). "Aging Populations in Europe, Japan, Korea, Require Action" (HTML). India Times. Retrieved on 2007-12-15.
- ^ http://unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups/public/documents/APCITY/UNPAN011033.pdf
- ^ Paul S. Hewitt (2002). "Depopulation and Ageing in Europe and Japan: The Hazardous Transition to a Labor Shortage Economy" (HTML). International Politics and Society. Retrieved on 2007-12-15.
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- This page was last modified on 3 November 2008, at 14:40.
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